As ministers gather for any high-level discussion on ambition at the climate talks in Madrid today, the stakes are high.
The UN Environment Programme (Unep) recently warned emissions will need to be cut by 7.6% a year for the next decade to satisfy the fir.5C Paris target.
But it's not only countries' emissions reductions plans that are dangerously out of step with Paris goals. Within our recent Production Gap Report, the Stockholm Environment Institute, four other leading research institutions, and Unep reveal that countries are planning to produce a lot more than double the amount fossil fuels than can be used as to keep global heating below 1.5C.
This alarming discrepancy suggests countries need to do more to create their fossil fuel extraction planning in line with climate goals.
So far, climate policy has paid limited focus on fossil fuel production. But as highlighted in side events in Madrid in the last days, policy solutions are gaining traction. Countries for example Costa Rica and Nz have previously taken proactive steps to wind down extraction of gas and oil. This year's Cop host, Spain, is a superb illustration of a country that is closing its coal industry, while helping to ensure a just transition for affected workers and communities.
It's here we are at this kind of action to visit global. The solutions are ready and available; what's missing may be the international cooperation that will not just satisfy the scale from the problem, but also ensure more ambitious and equitable outcomes.
Although non-renewable fuels happen to be largely absent in the UN climate talks' agenda to date, the Paris Agreement offers many inroads to bring non-renewable fuels into the conversation, and ensure governments do something to deal with the production gap.
So just how can the UN climate process help?
The first step is perfect for countries to build transparency around fossil fuel plans and extraction. Unlike on the emissions side, there is certainly no requirement for countries to talk about information about their current or planned fossil fuel extraction levels. But countries are still free to voluntarily report these details towards the UN climate process. Doing so is crucial to make sure that efforts become aligned with Paris goals.
A vital opportunity may be the upcoming 2023 update to countries' national climate pledges (known as NDCs, or nationally determined contributions). In their updated pledges, countries can and really should include commitments to transition from fossil fuel production. Currently, 3 countries – India and Nigeria – have included measures to financially disincentivise, or address public support for, fossil fuel production.
For the longer term, parties can also pre-plan Paris-consistent extraction pathways in long-term low emission development strategies. Such meticulous planning can help secure a more just, and less costly and socially disruptive transition from non-renewable fuels.
Another important step: stopping the flow of public money to non-renewable fuels. Each year, nearly $1 trillion is committed to new fossil fuel supply infrastructure and governments spend many billions of dollars on coal, oil, and gas production subsidies each year.
The Paris Agreement provides the rationale for countries to redirect these investments; certainly one of its aims would be to make finance flows consistent with development that's climate-resilient and lower in greenhouse gas emissions. Consistent with this goal, it will also make a difference to figure out ways to aid countries with fewer resources to achieve a just transition.
Other opportunities also abound. For example, countries can share guidelines in transitioning away from fossil fuel production with the UN climate process' “forum around the impact of the implementation of response measures.” Civil society, subnational authorities and other non-state actors may also promote a transition away from fossil fuels.
Finally, all of this work should be considered in the global stocktake of climate progress, the first of which will take place 2023. As to the extent are parties aligning fossil fuel production with the global stocktake? What exactly are barriers and finest practices? How can this alignment be improved? The final results of this stocktake should in turn inform countries' efforts to accelerate efforts to shut the production gap.
From the science community, to climate strikers, calls to bring fossil fuels into the climate conversation are loud and clear. It's as much as governments to heed this call.
