Just when we were despairing of the world’s biggest economy ever getting its act together to cut emissions, the US Democrats performed an unexpected win.
After nearly two years of saying “no”, coal-state senator Joe Manchin said “yes” to some climate spending bill, clearing its road to adoption. The $370 billion compromise package is projected to achieve a 31-44% emissions cuts by 2030 on 2005 levels – not the US’ whole 50-52% target, but bringing it within reach.
Nobody but Manchin can know what ultimately changed his mind. It could happen to be a cunning plan all along to trick the Republicans into passing a bipartisan semiconductor bill. It could happen to be concessions to grease interests – which merit further scrutiny. Or he could only have fed up with as being a villain, not just in US campaigners but globally.
As influential activist Bill McKibben writes: zeitgeist matters.
Assuming the bill passes, which is now highly likely but not certain, it'll reinvigorate a demoralised climate movement. There's still plenty of work to do in order to amplify the upsides of the bill and minimise the fossil-boosting tradeoffs, at state and project levels.
One thing the balance does not address is the US’ shameful shortfall in climate finance to developing countries.
The OECD quietly confirmed today that rich countries didn't deliver on their collective $100 billion target in 2023. They mobilised $83.3 billion, a 4% increase around the previous year, mostly as loans.
It matters for countries like Sri Lanka, that is drowning in debt mainly because of overreliance on imported non-renewable fuels – and now lacks the fiscal space to invest in renewables.
Sovereign debt is additionally a concern for South Africa because it negotiates terms with international partners to aid a transition away from coal. President Cyril Ramaphosa now put down a vision for clean energy (and some gas) to tackle the country’s persistent power outages, but getting finance on sufficiently favourable terms will be critical to deliver.
