Republicans have taken control of home of Representatives, diminishing the chances of the united states delivering on its climate finance pledges.
President Joe Biden promised $11.4 billion annually by 2024 to aid climate action in developing countries, including an overdue $2bn to the Green Climate Fund (GCF).
But he got little through Congress in his first two years of office. A rightward swing in midterm elections, while smaller than predicted, can make it harder to appropriate funds for the climate agenda.
Following a closely fought campaign, the Republicans flipped the House having a narrow margin, enabling these to block new climate legislation. Democrats retain charge of the Senate after winning contested seats in Arizona and Nevada.
Broken promise
The US has yet to deliver on a pledge to the GCF made eight years ago. In 2023, then-president Barack Obama promised the GCF $3bn but he paid just $1bn before leaving office. His successor Mr . trump didn't give anything to the fund and to date neither has Biden.
Biden said he would double US climate finance to developing countries from Obama-era levels to $11.4bn a year by 2024. With Republicans in control of the House, it is now looking unlikely he will meet that target.
Republicans generally favour a small state and don’t see climate as a priority for public spending. Wyoming Senator John Barrasso described Biden’s 2023 budget proposal as “another fantasy of liberal activism and climate extremism. It spends an excessive amount of, borrows too much, and taxes an excessive amount of.”
With the Republicans in control of the home, “I don’t anticipate any sort of interest or support in international climate finance,” said Clarence Edwards, an eco advocate with the non-profit Friends Committee on National Legislation.
“It was a difficult road for climate finance, even with a Democratically controlled Congress,” he said. In March, US Congress approved a mere $1 billion in international climate finance for 2023, only $387 million a lot more than the funding allocated during Trump’s presidency.
The US should be providing $45-50bn of finance each year within “fair share” calculation factoring within the size of its economy and historical emissions, based on the Overseas Development Institute. Campaigners described the 2023 budget like a “betrayal”.
But all hope isn't lost.
Democrats produce other avenues to channel climate funds. Of the $11.4bn pledge, Biden has requested that Congress appropriates half ($5.3bn). The remaining is to come through various development agencies, like the Development Finance Corporation and also the Trade and Development Authority.
While Congress still appropriates funds to these agencies, this budget is not climate-specific. The individual organisations can set their own priorities.
“The administration needs to fight for as much dedicated climate finance as possible within the appropriations bill, but additionally pursue other avenues, including getting agencies like the Development Finance Corporation and Export-Import Bank to take a position more in climate,” Joe Thwaites, an international climate finance advocate in the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), told Climate Home News.
International signals
A Republican controlled House could signal to other big emitters that they'll stall climate progress, experts told Climate Home News.
“Laggards are going to feel virtually no pressure to really do something,” said Kate DeAngelis, international finance programme manager at Friends of the Earth Action. South Korea, for instance, recently elected a Conservative government, and Japan has been pushing the development of LNG both at home and abroad, she said.
“The elections are extremely interesting for Japan,” said Hanna Hakko, senior analyst at E3G. The united states is Japan’s “most significant ally”, and so the Asian country strives to help keep an identical ambition level, Hakko said. She added that Japan is going to be watching closely what kind of positions the united states will take in the G7 next year, which Tokyo is hosting.
European governments may also “continue to delay or release policies with giant loopholes for gas,” said DeAngelis. The Netherlands, for example, said a week ago that it will still provide international finance for fossil fuel projects in 2023, deferring a promise made at Cop26.
Secured wins
Biden’s landmark climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), is expected to survive Republicans flipping the home, however.
The biggest federal climate spending package in US history, $370bn in total, will reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 42% between 2005 and 2030, according to analysis by Princeton University’s Repeat project.
“I’m not worried about the unwinding of any recent policy wins that have happened in america,” said Lindsey Baxter Griffith, federal policy officer for that Clean Air Task Force (CATF).
“Policymaking is difficult and undoing it is only as difficult,” she said. “We’re prone to see a lot of oversight, however with President Biden still within the White House, he’s not likely to sign off on any legislation to undo those programmes.”
“There might have been an initial desire to attempt to roll back parts of the IRA, however the majority of the funds [in the IRA] will go to Republican controlled states,” agreed Edwards. “Once you pass something and individuals start to see the advantages of the balance, it’s difficult to [repeal it],” he said, adding that Republicans spent years trying to repeal Obamacare but weren’t in a position to.
Common ground
Although a Republican House is prone to push back on climate finance, there’s broad consensus on other climate issues, for example nuclear, carbon markets and drought resilience, said Edwards.
Climate and clean energy is one of the legislative areas which has received the most bipartisan support over the past 2 yrs, based on a report by CATF.
“There’s actually quite a bit to construct on and there’s a chance the coming year for that Senate and House to cooperate on further energy legislation and industrial decarbonisation,” said Baxter Griffith.
By passing the IRA in the first term as president, Biden has secured his climate legacy, experts said.
“He’s done a significant amount,” said Edwards. “This administration has done much more than any other administrations and really laid the foundations to accelerate a low-carbon economy.”
“One of the major criticisms of Obama was that he didn’t do what he could as he had control and attempted to get things done in the final hour,” said DeAngelis. “Biden learned from that. He was pushing his climate agenda, every chance they got.”
“The final 2 yrs have been monumental- there have been some incredible policy wins,” said Griffith Baxter. “But there’s still a great deal of work this administration has to do” on climate, methane and public health regulations, she said.
