China’s multi-trillion dollar global investment plans could blow the 2C warming limit set through the Paris Agreement without curbs on pollution, new research said on Monday.
The 126 countries within the Belt and Road region now take into account 28% of global emissions, but on their own current trajectory, that may rise to 66% by 2050, researchers, led by Ma Jun, a unique advisor to China’s central bank, said.
That could mean global carbon levels would rise to almost double the amount level needed to keep temperature increases to below 2C, a major goal of the Paris Agreement.
“If B&RCs (Belt and Road countries) follow historical carbon-intense growth patterns… it might be enough to create a 2.7 degree path, whether or not the world adheres to two degree levels of emissions,” the report said.
The research was published jointly by China’s influential Tsinghua Center for Finance and Development, which supplies recommendations to policy makers, along with London-based Vivid Economics and US-based Climate Works.
The study estimated that more than $12 trillion in infrastructure investment will have to be “decarbonised”, and called for safeguards to make sure existing low-carbon technologies and practices were implemented, although even that might not be enough to satisfy 2050 goals.
The Belt and Road Initiative is really a Beijing-led programme aimed at boosting economic integration through infrastructure and investments in Asia and beyond. Signatory countries account for in regards to a quarter of the global economy.
Although China has promised to decarbonise its energy system, it has continued to approve and finance coal projects, using $1 billion in “green finance” to fund coal-fired power projects in the first half of 2023.
According to some study by environmental group Greenpeace, China has additionally committed to 67.9 gigawatts of coal-fired power in Belt and Road countries since 2023, compared to 12.6 GW of solar and wind power.
China has also been criticised for purchasing overseas coal-fired power projects using polluting technology no longer permitted at home.
Li Gao, a senior Chinese climate official, told reporters on the sidelines of a briefing on Friday that ought to be principle, China wouldn't use outdated technology in overseas projects, but in practice this could depend on circumstances and the actual standards of the hosting country.
