A new UN report shows the world's major fossil fuel producing countries, including Australia, intend to find out much more coal, gas and oil than could be burned if the world is to prevent serious harm from global warming.
The report found fossil fuel production in 2030 is on track to become 50% a lot more than is consistent with the 2℃ warming limit agreed underneath the Paris climate agreement. Production is anticpated to be 120% a lot more than is in line with holding warming to 1.5℃ – the ambitious end of the Paris goals.
Australia is strongly implicated in these findings. In the same decade we're supposed to be cutting emissions under the Paris goals, our coal production is placed to improve by 34%. This trend is undercutting our success in renewables deployment and mitigation elsewhere.
The United Nations Environment Program's Production Gap report, that I contributed, may be the first to assess whether current and projected fossil fuel extraction is consistent with meeting the Paris goals.
It reviewed seven top fossil fuel producers (China, the United States, Russia, India, Australia, Indonesia, and Canada) and three significant producers with strong climate ambitions (Germany, Norway, and the UK).
The production gap is largest for coal, which Australia may be the world's biggest exporter. By 2030, countries intend to produce 150% more coal than is in line with a 2℃ pathway, and 280% a lot more than is consistent with a 1.5℃ pathway.
The gap can also be substantial for oil and gas. Countries are projected to create 43% more oil and 47% more gas by 2040 than is consistent with a 2℃ pathway.
Nine countries, including Australia, have the effect of more than two-thirds of fossil fuel carbon emissions – a calculation depending on how much fuel nations extract, regardless of where it is burned.
China is the world's largest coal producer, comprising up to 50 % of worldwide production in 2023. The US produces more gas and oil than every other country and it is the second-largest producer of coal.
Australia may be the sixth-largest extractor of fossil fuels, the earth's leading exporter of coal, and also the second-largest exporter of liquefied gas.
Prospects for improvement are poor. As countries continue to invest in fossil fuel infrastructure, this “locks in” future coal, oil and gas use.
US oil and gas production are each projected to increase by 30% to 2030, as is Canada's oil production.
Australia's coal production is projected to leap by 34%, the report says. Proposed large coal mines and ports, if completed, would represent one of the world's largest fossil fuel expansions – around 300 megatonnes of extra coal capacity every year.
The expansion is underpinned by a mixture of ambitious national plans, government subsidies to producers and other public finance.
In Australia, tax-based fossil fuel subsidies total more than A$12 billion every year. Governments also encourage coal production by fast-tracking approvals, constructing roads and reducing royalty requirements, for example for Adani's recently approved Carmichael coal mine in the Galilee Basin.
Ongoing global production loads the energy market with cheap fossil fuels – often artificially cheapened by government subsidies. This greatly slows the transition to renewables by distorting markets, locking in investment and deepening community reliance upon related employment.
In Australia, this policy failure is driven by deliberate political avoidance in our national responsibilities for that harm caused by our exports. You will find good cause for arguing this breaches our moral and legal obligations under the Un climate treaty.
So what to do about it? As our report states, governments frequently recognise that simultaneously tackling supply and demand for a product is the best way to limit its use.
For decades, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have focused almost solely on decreasing interest in non-renewable fuels, as well as their consumption – through energy efficiency, deployment of renewable technologies and carbon pricing – rather than slowing supply.
While the focus on demand is essential, policies and actions to lessen fossil fuels use have not been sufficient.
It has become essential we address supply by introducing measures to prevent carbon lock-in, limit financial risks to lenders and governments, promote policy coherence and end government reliance upon fossil fuel-related revenues.
Policy options include ending fossil fuel subsidies and taxing production and export. Government can use regulation to limit extraction and hang goals to wind it down, while offering support for workers and communities within the transition.
Several governments have already restricted fossil fuel production. France, Denmark and Nz have partially or totally banned or suspended gas and oil exploration and extraction, and Germany and Spain are phasing out coal mining.
Australia is clearly a significant contributor within the world's fossil fuel supply problem. We should urgently set targets, and take actions, that align our future fossil fuel production with global climate goals.
